时间:2010年08月23日  来源:股票黑马推荐  作者:免费推荐股票黑马 添加到百度搜藏

<p><font face="宋体">　国资委曾明确提出，到</font><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年央企要调整和重组至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">80-100</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家以内，其中</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30-50</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家为具有国际竞争力的大企业集团。要求央企至少在规模上做到行业前</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">名，对于达不到要求的将进行强制重组。而到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2013</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年，中国国资体系将实现大洗牌，央企数目缩减至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">30-50</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家，地方国企总数亦不超过</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">1000</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年，注定将成为央企及地方国资整合进入高潮的一年，自上而下的并购重组有望成为全年乃至未来几年市场最大的主题热点，同时也孕育着最大的结构性机会。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　</span><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">时间比较紧</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　目前，离</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2010</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年央企整合减少至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">100</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家内的最后期限只剩不到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个月，很多前期已经预沟通，并进行较多铺垫工作的央企单位，后续会有实质的重组动作出来。到期限截止时，没有找到&ldquo;婆家&rdquo;，规模较小、主业不是很清晰的企业会被直接装进中投二号，预计有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">10</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家左右小型央企有望被中投二号暂时接管。暂时装进中投二号的企业可能根据产业链布局对其进行重新整合，或者改制退出，通过专业化经营重新获得竞争力后，再与第三方进行重组、出售给外部战略投资者等。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　根据华泰联合策略部的并购重组指数看，一般每年</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">2</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">季度左右是市场淡季，进入</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">季度后重组市场逐渐加温，年底进入高潮。目前央企、国资整合力度不断加大，下半年并购重组的大潮将势不可挡。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　</span><strong><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">率先看上海</span></strong><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　我们看到，近期上海国资整合进程明显加快，预计下半年伴随着央企整合大限的临近和地方国资整合进入实质阶段，市场上结构性的机会将更多地诞生在并购重组个股中。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　今年上半年至今，央企家数只减少了</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">6</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家，而余下</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个月的硬指标是</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">23</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家。国务院国资委主任李荣融在</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">7</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">月</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">23</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">日举行的中央企业负责人会议上表示，下半年要以组建国新资产管理公司为契机，加快中央企业重组和调整步伐，年底前确保把央企家数调整到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">100</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">家以内。按照国资委的硬性要求，余下</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">个月整合的力度和速度将前所未有。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　上海国资打响地方国资整合高潮的第一枪。近期上海国资下属企业动作频频。今年是《上海市&ldquo;十一五&rdquo;国有资产调整和发展专项规划》的最后一年，《规划》中明确标明&ldquo;要用</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">3</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">至</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">5</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">年的时间基本完成产业类企业集团整体上市或核心业务资产上市，市属经营性国有资产证券化率由</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">18%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">提高到</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">40%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">左右的目标&rdquo;。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p><font face="Times New Roman">&nbsp;</font></o:p></span></p> <p style="margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt"><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">　　数据显示，目前上海的国资证券化率只有</span><span lang="EN-US"><font face="Times New Roman">25.4%</font></span><span style="font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-hansi-font-family: 'Times New Roman'">，距目标还有差距。</span></p>

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